jaue2016058: Construction of long-term prediction system for urban environmental loads and Study of Scenario for CO2 Emission Reduction Measures

Abstract

In order to reduce the urban environmental loads, it is necessary to develop a simulator that can be long-term predict of the urban environmental load (energy consumption and CO2 emissions) when the policy introduced. So we made the simulator using system dynamics method that enables the prediction of energy consumption and CO2 emissions. It is named Habitat model.
System dynamics method is a computerized approach to policy analysis and design. We constructed several models to target a different population scale city. There are Fukuoka model for the large-scale city, Kashiwa model for the medium-scale city, and Kumano model for the small-scale city. Further, by unifying the variables that exist in the model, we made the Universal model. It can evaluate policies intended for multiple cities. For the evaluation of more policies, it is necessary to establish the more complex cause-and-effect relationship, and to improve the prediction accuracy of the Universal model.
In this paper, the purpose is to clarify the verifiable policies using the Habitat model, and to clarify the amount of CO2 emission reductions at the time of introduction of those policies. By resetting the influence between the variables, we can verify more complex policies. And by using the model, to target the Kumano City, we verify the CO2 emissions when the policy was introduced in Kumano city.