JAUE2020-081: Integrated Energy Planning for NCEDD Part 2: Demand Forecasting Method and Demand-Side Energy Scheme

Abstract

Scientifically forecasting energy demand can avoid oversizing of systems and is also the issue that needs to be thoroughly explored and solved in the current integrated energy planning. This paper is Part 2 of a series of articles on Integrated Energy Planning for Near-Zero Carbon Emission Demonstration District (NCEDD). A case study of Meishan International Near-zero Carbon Emission Demonstration District (MINCEDD) was investigated to explain the method of district demand forecasting of demand-side energy planning. The energy demand was forecasted by integrating scenario analysis and energy modeling according to the planning objectives, current energy consumption, regulatory planning and demand-side schemes. The demands of conventional and near-zero modes by 2030 and 2050 were forecasted by establishing the typical model based on different demand-side energy saving schemes. The results show that the electricity consumption of the planned district for the near-zero carbon scenario would reach 7.80 billion kWh by 2030 and 10.66 billion kWh by 2050. This case can provide a reference for district energy demand forecasting and demand-side planning of relevant integrated energy planning projects.